For 4 points, that is (1/2)3=1/8(1/2)^3 = 1/8(1/2)3=1/8, the same 12.5% we measured earlier. There is one such event for each of the NNN points, so we have NNN events each with probability 1/2N−11/2^{N-1}1/2N−1.
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Angela has turned around "many times" during climbs. She says you have to do so "not when everything is dramatic" but rather "long before that".